Ask the Expert: North Korea

With P.J. Crowley, Senior Fellow and Director of National Defense and Homeland Security, Center for American Progress

Why is the Bush Administration refusing bilateral talks with North Korea? Why does Kim Jong Il want bilateral talks?

-Michelle Paladino, Junior, NYU

North Korea is isolated and unpredictable, a bad combination for a country that says it has nuclear weapons and probably does. North Korea represents a dire threat to the region and a long-range threat to the United States. Our greatest problem with North Korea is the fact that nuclear and missile technology is its cash crop. As far as we know, their sales thus far have been to nation-states. The danger is that they could begin dealing with groups like al Qaeda.

North Korea’s current trajectory – withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, kicking the International Atomic Energy Agency out, unfreezing its nuclear program at Yongbyon, resuming reprocessing and presumably increasing its weapons stock (not to mention separate enrichment programs) – is unacceptable to the United States. The only way to break this cycle is to talk directly with them, which the Bush Administration refuses to do. The Six-Party Framework is fine, but has to include a two-party dialogue within it. The Bush administration says it wants a diplomatic solution, but refuses to do the diplomacy. The Bush Administration tends to equate dialogue with appeasement. Certainly we should have no illusions about the North Koreans. They are not trustworthy. But talking to them is about our self-interest.

What does North Korea want from bilateral talks? They want status, aid and reassurance that we are not going to attack them. One thing to remember, being quite phobic, they actually believe what we say about them. We understand that “axis of evil” was oratorical. The North Koreans accelerated their nuclear program after we said it. It would be nice to think we can blockade them and wait for their society to collapse. However, there is no indication that the North Korean leadership is losing its grip on society. We shouldn’t trust North Korea to walk across Washington Square, but we must avoid them putting nuclear know-how in the hands of a terrorist. What we need to avoid is a resumption of a nuclear arms race in the world. If North Korea breaks out, it starts a negative dynamic with respect to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Dialogue is at least likely to prevent the current bad situation from getting worse. The Bush Administration’s approach has not worked for the past four years and is not likely to work for the next four years. I don’t see a solution without meaningful engagement.

P.J. Crowley is a Senior Fellow and Director of National Defense and Homeland Security at the Center for American Progress. During the Clinton administration, Crowley was Special Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs, serving as Senior Director of Public Affairs for the National Security Council. Prior to that, he was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs. In all,  Crowley was a spokesman for the United States government and United States military for 28 years, 11 of those years at the Pentagon and three at the White House. He served for 26 years in the United States Air Force, retiring at the rank of colonel in September 1999. He is a veteran of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm.

Do you have a question? Do you need an expert? Write us at askexpert@americanprogress.org.